How would you choose between shows?

You are a data scientist at a streaming company similar to Netflix or Hulu. Leadership wants a recommendation on whether to renew an existing series or invest in a new one. **Part A: Renewal framework** For an existing show called **The Analyst**, how would you decide whether it should be renewed or canceled? Build a structured framework that goes beyond simple profit calculation. Your answer should consider: - Financial performance - User impact such as acquisition, retention, engagement, and churn reduction - Strategic value such as franchise/IP potential, genre coverage, and brand differentiation - Risks and uncertainty Also explain how you would estimate the show's **incremental** business impact rather than relying only on raw view counts, and what biases or confounding factors could mislead the analysis. **Part B: Two-year profit calculation** Now compare two shows that each require a **2-year commitment**. Assume: - One season is released per year - `2-year profit = (viewers per season × revenue per viewer × 2) - (annual cost × 2) - one-time startup cost` - All money is in USD millions unless stated otherwise - Ignore discounting, taxes, and cannibalization unless you choose to discuss them as caveats **Show 1: The Analyst** (existing show) - Viewers per season: 5 million - Revenue per viewer per season: $15 - Annual cost: $50 million - Startup cost: $0 **Show 2: Sharkbank** (new show) If the show is **successful**: - Viewers per season: 7 million - Revenue per viewer per season: $15 - Annual cost: $60 million - One-time startup cost: $20 million If the show is **unsuccessful**: - Viewers per season: 4 million - Revenue per viewer per season: $15 - Annual cost: $60 million - One-time startup cost: $20 million 1. Compute Sharkbank's 2-year profit in the success scenario and in the failure scenario. 2. If success and failure are each 50% likely, what is Sharkbank's expected 2-year profit? 3. Which show would you choose: The Analyst or Sharkbank? Do not rely only on expected value; discuss risk appetite, downside protection, portfolio strategy, and any strategic upside not captured in the simple model. 4. If leadership asks you to improve **The Analyst's** profit, what levers would you recommend? Include both revenue-side and cost-side ideas, and explain how you would measure whether those levers actually caused improvement.