You are a data scientist at a streaming company similar to Netflix or Hulu. Leadership wants a recommendation on whether to renew an existing series or invest in a new one.
Part A: Renewal framework
For an existing show called The Analyst, how would you decide whether it should be renewed or canceled? Build a structured framework that goes beyond simple profit calculation. Your answer should consider:
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Financial performance
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User impact such as acquisition, retention, engagement, and churn reduction
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Strategic value such as franchise/IP potential, genre coverage, and brand differentiation
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Risks and uncertainty
Also explain how you would estimate the show's incremental business impact rather than relying only on raw view counts, and what biases or confounding factors could mislead the analysis.
Part B: Two-year profit calculation
Now compare two shows that each require a 2-year commitment. Assume:
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One season is released per year
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2-year profit = (viewers per season × revenue per viewer × 2) - (annual cost × 2) - one-time startup cost
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All money is in USD millions unless stated otherwise
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Ignore discounting, taxes, and cannibalization unless you choose to discuss them as caveats
Show 1: The Analyst (existing show)
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Viewers per season: 5 million
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Revenue per viewer per season: $15
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Annual cost: $50 million
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Startup cost: $0
Show 2: Sharkbank (new show)
If the show is successful:
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Viewers per season: 7 million
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Revenue per viewer per season: $15
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Annual cost: $60 million
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One-time startup cost: $20 million
If the show is unsuccessful:
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Viewers per season: 4 million
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Revenue per viewer per season: $15
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Annual cost: $60 million
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One-time startup cost: $20 million
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Compute Sharkbank's 2-year profit in the success scenario and in the failure scenario.
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If success and failure are each 50% likely, what is Sharkbank's expected 2-year profit?
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Which show would you choose: The Analyst or Sharkbank? Do not rely only on expected value; discuss risk appetite, downside protection, portfolio strategy, and any strategic upside not captured in the simple model.
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If leadership asks you to improve
The Analyst's
profit, what levers would you recommend? Include both revenue-side and cost-side ideas, and explain how you would measure whether those levers actually caused improvement.