How would you choose between shows?
Company: Capital One
Role: Data Scientist
Category: Analytics & Experimentation
Difficulty: medium
Interview Round: Technical Screen
You are a data scientist at a streaming company similar to Netflix or Hulu. Leadership wants a recommendation on whether to renew an existing series or invest in a new one.
**Part A: Renewal framework**
For an existing show called **The Analyst**, how would you decide whether it should be renewed or canceled? Build a structured framework that goes beyond simple profit calculation. Your answer should consider:
- Financial performance
- User impact such as acquisition, retention, engagement, and churn reduction
- Strategic value such as franchise/IP potential, genre coverage, and brand differentiation
- Risks and uncertainty
Also explain how you would estimate the show's **incremental** business impact rather than relying only on raw view counts, and what biases or confounding factors could mislead the analysis.
**Part B: Two-year profit calculation**
Now compare two shows that each require a **2-year commitment**. Assume:
- One season is released per year
- `2-year profit = (viewers per season × revenue per viewer × 2) - (annual cost × 2) - one-time startup cost`
- All money is in USD millions unless stated otherwise
- Ignore discounting, taxes, and cannibalization unless you choose to discuss them as caveats
**Show 1: The Analyst** (existing show)
- Viewers per season: 5 million
- Revenue per viewer per season: $15
- Annual cost: $50 million
- Startup cost: $0
**Show 2: Sharkbank** (new show)
If the show is **successful**:
- Viewers per season: 7 million
- Revenue per viewer per season: $15
- Annual cost: $60 million
- One-time startup cost: $20 million
If the show is **unsuccessful**:
- Viewers per season: 4 million
- Revenue per viewer per season: $15
- Annual cost: $60 million
- One-time startup cost: $20 million
1. Compute Sharkbank's 2-year profit in the success scenario and in the failure scenario.
2. If success and failure are each 50% likely, what is Sharkbank's expected 2-year profit?
3. Which show would you choose: The Analyst or Sharkbank? Do not rely only on expected value; discuss risk appetite, downside protection, portfolio strategy, and any strategic upside not captured in the simple model.
4. If leadership asks you to improve **The Analyst's** profit, what levers would you recommend? Include both revenue-side and cost-side ideas, and explain how you would measure whether those levers actually caused improvement.
Quick Answer: This question evaluates a data scientist's competency in quantifying incremental business impact, causal reasoning about bias and confounders, risk-adjusted profit modeling, and designing experimentation-informed metrics within the Analytics & Experimentation domain for a data science role.
