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Identify Probability Distributions for Modeling Ad Clicks

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates a data scientist's mastery of probability modeling for binary and count data, computation of expectation and variance, mixture-model reasoning for heterogeneous populations, and understanding of asymptotic sampling behavior (central limit theorem) within the Statistics & Math domain.

  • medium
  • Meta
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Identify Probability Distributions for Modeling Ad Clicks

Company: Meta

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

##### Scenario Ads team wants to understand click behaviour and validate statistical knowledge during an analytical-execution round. ##### Question Name three probability distributions suitable for modeling ad clicks and state the core assumption of each. Write the expectation and variance formula for those distributions. If 90 % of users are high-intent and 10 % are low-intent, each with an expected click-through of 0.30, compute the overall expected CTR. Sketch the PDF of an exponential distribution and describe what happens to its shape as sample size becomes very large. ##### Hints Think Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Exponential; use law of total expectation; recall CLT.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates a data scientist's mastery of probability modeling for binary and count data, computation of expectation and variance, mixture-model reasoning for heterogeneous populations, and understanding of asymptotic sampling behavior (central limit theorem) within the Statistics & Math domain.

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Meta
Jul 12, 2025, 6:59 PM
Data Scientist
Technical Screen
Statistics & Math
71
0

Context

You are interviewing for a data scientist role on an ads team. You are asked to demonstrate knowledge of common probability models for clicks, basic expectations, and asymptotic behavior.

Tasks

  1. Name three probability distributions suitable for modeling ad clicks and state the core assumption of each.
  2. For those distributions, write their expectation and variance formulas.
  3. If 90% of users are high-intent and 10% are low-intent, each with an expected click-through rate (CTR) of 0.30, compute the overall expected CTR.
  4. Sketch (describe) the PDF of an exponential distribution and explain what happens to its shape as sample size becomes very large (hint: think about the sampling distribution/CLT).

Solution

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