Investigating a 40% Rise in Early Subscriber Cancellations at HelloFresh

At HelloFresh, first-month churn among new subscribers has risen 40%. As the product manager, how would you find out why? ```hint A rate has two halves Ask whether the customers joining have changed, as well as what happens to them in their first weeks. Find a way to tell those two stories apart early. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Is the 40% a relative increase in the churn rate, or an increase of 40 percentage points? - Does churn here mean an active cancellation only, or are customers who pause or skip every delivery counted too? - Is "first month" measured from signup or from the first delivery, and which signup cohorts and markets show the increase? - Did the rise begin suddenly with a particular signup week, or build gradually? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A precise definition of first-month churn, separating voluntary cancellations from payment failures, and checks that the rise is not a tracking or definition artifact - Cohort analysis that separates a change in who signs up (acquisition channel, depth of the introductory discount, market, plan) from a change in churn within each group - The first month mapped stage by stage, from signup through the first delivery and cooking to the first full-price box, with a signal for each stage that shows where customers leave - Concrete internal and external hypotheses, each tied to the data that would confirm or rule it out, checked in a sensible order - A fix matched to the cause, plus guardrails such as acquisition cost payback and longer-term retention, without making cancellation harder ### Follow-up Questions - If the whole increase comes from customers acquired through a new deep-discount offer, is that a problem? How would you decide whether to keep the offer? - Suppose late or damaged first boxes have doubled in one region. What do you do this week, and what do you change for good? - How would you test a change meant to reduce first-month churn, and which metrics would show it worked rather than just delaying cancellations?