Market Sizing: Apple's 2022 iPhone Unit Volume in the Indian Market

Estimate how many iPhones were bought in India during 2022. Walk the interviewer through how you structure the estimate, label each assumption, do the arithmetic out loud, and check whether your result is plausible. ```hint Stock versus flow A year's sales is a flow, while ownership is a stock. Think about which groups of people in India can afford an iPhone at all, and how often an owner buys a new one. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Does "sold" mean new units bought by customers, or should refurbished and second-hand iPhones count too? - Should every iPhone model on sale that year count, or only the models launched in 2022? - Are we counting units sold to end customers through every channel (online, Apple's own channels, retail stores), or units shipped into the distribution channel, and is 2022 the calendar year? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A precise definition of what is counted: new versus used units, which models, which channels, and which period - A clear equation that separates the people who own an iPhone from the purchases made in a single year - Segmentation by ability to afford a premium phone, reflecting how unequal incomes are in India and how price-sensitive its phone market is - Round, labeled assumptions with arithmetic that is easy to follow - A sanity check through an independent route, a range, and the assumptions the answer is most sensitive to ### Follow-up Questions - Which single assumption moves your answer the most, and what real data would you use to pin it down? - How would you estimate the number of used and refurbished iPhones bought in India in the same year? - If Apple expanded its own stores and installment-payment offers in India the following year, which inputs in your model would change, and in which direction?