Model Feature Adoption Probability for Users
Feature Adoption Probability Modeling
Context
You are analyzing adoption of a new wallet feature. Each of n users independently adopts the feature with identical probability p. Let X be the number of adopters among the n users.
Tasks
(a) Compute the expected number of adopters.
(b) Compute the probability that at least one user adopts.
(c) Given that at least one user adopts, compute the probability that exactly two users adopt.
Hints
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Model X with a Binomial(n, p) distribution.
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Use the complement rule for "at least one": P(X ≥ 1) = 1 − P(X = 0).
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Use conditional probability: P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B).
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
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Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
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Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
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A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
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Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
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Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
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How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
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Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
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What is the most likely source of estimation error?