Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Explain the assumptions and derivation clearly, check edge cases, and show how the result changes when those assumptions no longer hold.
# Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game
Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Each opening costs the same fee `x`; you choose an unopened box and may stop after any failure. Find the largest `x` for which starting optimally has nonnegative expected value. Then, after deriving that break-even fee, decide whether a player who paid that fee for the first opening and failed should continue.
### Constraints & Assumptions
- The prize is equally likely in each box.
- Each additional opening costs `x`.
### Clarifying Questions to Ask
- Should the continuation decision compare only future conditional value and future costs?
- Does finding the prize end the game immediately?
### What a Strong Answer Covers
- Backward induction, stopping choices, the break-even fee, and sunk-cost reasoning.
### Follow-up Questions
- How does the answer generalize to `m` boxes?
- What if unopened boxes have unequal probabilities?
Quick Answer: Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Explain the assumptions and derivation clearly, check edge cases, and show how the result changes when those assumptions no longer hold.
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Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game
Four boxes contain one $100 prize. Each opening costs the same fee x; you choose an unopened box and may stop after any failure. Find the largest x for which starting optimally has nonnegative expected value. Then, after deriving that break-even fee, decide whether a player who paid that fee for the first opening and failed should continue.
Constraints & Assumptions
The prize is equally likely in each box.
Each additional opening costs
x
.
Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance
Should the continuation decision compare only future conditional value and future costs?
Does finding the prize end the game immediately?
What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance
Backward induction, stopping choices, the break-even fee, and sunk-cost reasoning.
Follow-up Questions Guidance
How does the answer generalize to
m
boxes?
What if unopened boxes have unequal probabilities?