Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game

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Quick Overview

Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Explain the assumptions and derivation clearly, check edge cases, and show how the result changes when those assumptions no longer hold.

Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game

Company: Worldquant

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

# Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Each opening costs the same fee `x`; you choose an unopened box and may stop after any failure. Find the largest `x` for which starting optimally has nonnegative expected value. Then, after deriving that break-even fee, decide whether a player who paid that fee for the first opening and failed should continue. ### Constraints & Assumptions - The prize is equally likely in each box. - Each additional opening costs `x`. ### Clarifying Questions to Ask - Should the continuation decision compare only future conditional value and future costs? - Does finding the prize end the game immediately? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - Backward induction, stopping choices, the break-even fee, and sunk-cost reasoning. ### Follow-up Questions - How does the answer generalize to `m` boxes? - What if unopened boxes have unequal probabilities?

Overview: Four boxes contain one \$100 prize. Explain the assumptions and derivation clearly, check edge cases, and show how the result changes when those assumptions no longer hold.

Read the full Worldquant Data Scientist interview experience this question came from

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Feb 26, 2025
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Price a Sequential Four-Box Search Game

Four boxes contain one $100 prize. Each opening costs the same fee x; you choose an unopened box and may stop after any failure. Find the largest x for which starting optimally has nonnegative expected value. Then, after deriving that break-even fee, decide whether a player who paid that fee for the first opening and failed should continue.

Constraints & Assumptions

  • The prize is equally likely in each box.
  • Each additional opening costs x .

Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance

  • Should the continuation decision compare only future conditional value and future costs?
  • Does finding the prize end the game immediately?

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

  • Backward induction, stopping choices, the break-even fee, and sunk-cost reasoning.

Follow-up Questions Guidance

  • How does the answer generalize to m boxes?
  • What if unopened boxes have unequal probabilities?
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