Root-Cause a 25% Jump in Spotify App Installs: Hypotheses and How to Test Them

Spotify's app installs have gone up by 25%. What could have caused the increase? Give at least four plausible reasons, and show how you would work out which of them is actually behind it. ```hint What is being counted Before listing causes, pin down what an install counts and what the 25% is compared with; a change in counting can look like growth. Then check that your reasons do not all come from the same place. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Over what period, and against which baseline: the previous weeks, the same period last year, or a forecast? Did it jump at once or build up gradually? - Is the rise global, or concentrated in certain countries, platforms (iOS, Android, desktop) or acquisition channels? - Do the installs come from people new to Spotify, or do they include existing users reinstalling or setting up a new device? - Did new sign-ups and first-time listeners rise in step with installs? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - Clarifying the metric and baseline, and ruling out tracking or definition changes before explaining real growth - At least four distinct, plausible causes that span Spotify's own actions and outside events - A plan that tells the causes apart, naming the evidence each would leave in the data by time, region, platform, channel and user type - A judgment on whether the growth is healthy, based on activation and retention of the new users ### Follow-up Questions - Installs are up 25% but new monthly active users are flat. What does that point to? - The whole increase comes from Android in one country. Which causes move to the top of your list, and why? - A campaign appears to be driving the rise. How would you check that its installs are incremental before spending more on it?