Root-cause a fall in Tinder match volume and plan the recovery

You are a product manager on Tinder, and the number of matches has gone down. Explain how you would work out what is causing the decline and what you would do to fix it. ```hint Break the metric apart Before guessing at causes, express matches as a chain of steps that users on both sides of a match go through, and look for the step and the user group where the change shows up. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - How big is the decline, over what period, and did it happen suddenly or gradually? - Is it total matches or matches per active user, and how is a match counted in the data? - Is the decline worldwide, or concentrated in certain countries, platforms or user groups? - Did any release, experiment, pricing change or outside event coincide with the start of the decline? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - Confirming the decline is real: its definition, size and timing, seasonality, and possible data or logging errors - A breakdown of matches into component steps and user segments that localizes the change - Internal and external hypotheses, checked in a sensible order with the data that would confirm or rule out each - Fixes tied to the cause actually found, with how each would be validated - A judgment on whether fewer matches is truly bad, using downstream outcomes and guardrails ### Follow-up Questions - If the decline is concentrated on one platform right after a release, how would you confirm the release caused it and decide whether to roll it back? - Suppose a ranking change reduced matches but increased the share of matches that turn into conversations. Would you keep it? - How would you set up monitoring so the team catches a drop like this sooner?