Sizing the US Micromobility Market and Checking It Against Company Valuations

How big is the micromobility market in the United States? Build an estimate from your own stated assumptions, then use what existing micromobility companies have been valued at to test whether your answer is reasonable. ```hint Define the market before you multiply Micromobility can mean rented scooters and bikes only, or also the bikes and scooters people buy for themselves. Decide which layers you include, give each its own equation, and work out how a company's valuation relates to its yearly revenue before you compare the two. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Should the market cover only shared services, the kind of rentals a company such as Lime runs, or also personally owned bikes, e-bikes and e-scooters? - Are we measuring yearly consumer spending in dollars, the number of trips, or a long-run addressable market? - Do ordinary pedal bikes count, or only powered vehicles? - Is this the market today, or a projection a few years out? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A definition of the market and of the unit being sized, agreed before any arithmetic. - An equation for each segment, with every input labeled as an assumption, round numbers and correct arithmetic. - A final range rather than a falsely precise single number, together with the inputs that move it most. - A valuation cross-check that converts valuation into implied revenue and adjusts for global operations and market share. - A judgment on what valuations can and cannot confirm, plus at least one independent sanity check. ### Follow-up Questions - Which assumption moves your estimate the most, and what data would you collect to pin it down? - Shared scooter companies lost much of their peak value within a few years. What does that imply about using valuations as a check? - How would you size the part of this market Lime could realistically capture in the next three years?