Trader Joe's Sales Slide Where Grocery Delivery and Meal Kits Operate: Diagnose and Respond

You are a product manager at Trader Joe's. In the cities where Instacart (grocery delivery) and Blue Apron (meal kits) operate, the chain's sales are falling. How would you approach this? ```hint Test the link before acting on it These cities probably differ from others in more ways than the presence of two delivery services. Check whether the decline really tracks them, and split sales into its parts, before choosing a response. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - How large is the decline, over what period, and is it measured as same-store sales or as total sales, which store openings and closures also move? - Did the decline begin when Instacart or Blue Apron entered or expanded in those cities, or earlier or later? - Is the decline spread evenly across those cities and their stores, or concentrated in some of them? - Is launching delivery or online ordering on the table, or should the response keep the in-store model? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - Confirming the decline is real and tied to these competitors, with comparable cities as a control - Breaking sales into trips and basket size, and by category, store and time of day - Separate hypotheses for how a grocery delivery service and a meal-kit service each take sales, with the evidence for each - Prioritized responses that fit Trader Joe's business model, piloted against control stores - Success metrics and guardrails for the chosen response ### Follow-up Questions - The data shows fewer shopping trips but an unchanged basket per trip. What does that suggest, and what would you do? - Would you partner with a delivery service or build an order-ahead pickup option? What would decide it? - How would you measure a pilot's effect if you cannot track individual customers across visits?