A/B Test Readout and Decision (2025-08-26 to 2025-09-01)
Context
A 50/50 A/B experiment on the checkout flow ran for 7 days, from 2025-08-26 through 2025-09-01 (today). Below are daily exposures and purchases for variants A and B. Treat exposures as the unit of randomization/analysis and purchases as binary conversions within the analysis window.
| Date | A_exposed | A_purchases | B_exposed | B_purchases |
|---|
| 2025-08-26 | 28,000 | 1,350 | 27,800 | 1,420 |
| 2025-08-27 | 28,500 | 1,380 | 28,100 | 1,460 |
| 2025-08-28 | 28,200 | 1,390 | 27,900 | 1,450 |
| 2025-08-29 | 28,400 | 1,420 | 28,000 | 1,520 |
| 2025-08-30 | 28,300 | 1,370 | 27,700 | 1,480 |
| 2025-08-31 | 28,100 | 1,410 | 27,900 | 1,510 |
| 2025-09-01 | 30,500 | 2,580 | 30,000 | 2,560 |
Tasks
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Compute overall conversion rates (CR) for A and B, absolute/relative lift, and a two-proportion z-test p-value and 95% CI for the lift.
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Check for sample ratio mismatch (SRM) daily and overall. If detected, propose root causes and mitigation.
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Analyze heterogeneity across days; is it appropriate to pool? Justify with a fixed-effects vs random-effects framing.
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Identify at least three pitfalls relevant to this window (e.g., seasonality/holiday effect on 2025-09-01, novelty effects, user overlap, peeking). Propose guardrails before launch.
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If the minimal detectable effect (MDE) was +5% relative over baseline, assess achieved power approximately and recommend whether to roll out, iterate, or extend. State assumptions.