Calculate dice game win probability

Quick Overview

This interview question evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer for Calculate dice game win probability states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

Calculate dice game win probability

Company: Jane Street

Role: Software Engineer

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: easy

Interview Round: HR Screen

##### Question In a dice game with two friends, each player rolls one standard 6-sided die; the highest roll wins, and if there is a tie among the highest numbers, all tied players re-roll. Your two friends have both rolled a 4, and you now roll next. What is the probability that you eventually win the game?

Quick Answer: This interview question evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer for Calculate dice game win probability states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

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Aug 4, 2025, 10:55 AM
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Calculate dice game win probability

Dice Game With Tie Rerolls: Probability You Eventually Win

Context

  • Three players each roll a fair standard 6-sided die.
  • The highest roll wins.
  • If there is a tie for the highest number, only the tied players re-roll; this repeats until there is a single winner.

Question

Your two friends have both rolled a 4. You now roll next. What is the probability that you eventually win the game?

Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance

  • Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
  • Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
  • Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

  • A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
  • A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
  • Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
  • Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.

Follow-up Questions Guidance

  • How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
  • Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
  • What is the most likely source of estimation error?
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