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Calculate win chance in three-player dice game

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates understanding of probability theory, conditional probability, and modelling of repeated stochastic events such as ties and rerolls, and is categorized under Statistics & Math.

  • medium
  • Jane Street
  • Statistics & Math
  • Software Engineer

Calculate win chance in three-player dice game

Company: Jane Street

Role: Software Engineer

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: HR Screen

Three players A (you), B, and C play with a fair six-sided die. B and C have already rolled and both showed 4. You now roll once. If your roll is greater than 4, you win immediately. If your roll is exactly 4, then all three players reroll simultaneously, repeating until there is a unique highest face. If your roll is less than 4, you lose immediately. What is your probability of ultimately winning?

Quick Answer: This question evaluates understanding of probability theory, conditional probability, and modelling of repeated stochastic events such as ties and rerolls, and is categorized under Statistics & Math.

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Jane Street
Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 AM
Software Engineer
HR Screen
Statistics & Math
20
0

Probability of Winning with Rerolls on Ties

Setup

  • Three players: A (you), B, and C.
  • A fair six-sided die is used.
  • B and C have already rolled and both showed 4.
  • You now roll once:
    1. If your roll > 4, you win immediately.
    2. If your roll = 4, all three players reroll simultaneously, repeating until there is a unique highest face. (If the highest face is tied by two or more players, everyone rerolls again.)
    3. If your roll < 4, you lose immediately.

Question: What is the probability that you ultimately win?

Solution

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