Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence

Quick Overview

This interview question evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer for Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence

Probability Check — Waiting Time for HT

Setup

You repeatedly flip a fair coin (independent flips; P(H)=P(T)=1/2).
Stop as soon as the consecutive pattern HT appears for the first time.

Question

What is the expected total number of flips required until HT first appears?

Hint: Model states as Start (no useful last flip), H (last flip was H), and an absorbing state (HT seen). Set up and solve expected-value equations.

Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance

Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.

Follow-up Questions Guidance

How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
What is the most likely source of estimation error?

Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence

Quick Overview

Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence

Calculate Expected Flips for Heads-Tails Sequence

Probability Check — Waiting Time for HT

Setup

Question

Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

Follow-up Questions Guidance

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