Grocery Loyalty Program Economics — Year‑1 Incremental Profit and Premium Break‑Even
Context: You are evaluating the Year‑1 unit economics of a grocery loyalty program for individual customers. Assume one full year of participation (12 months) for costs. Baseline = behavior if the customer does not join.
Inputs (unless otherwise stated):
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Gross margin rate before discounts: m = 28%.
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Basic tier discount on eligible spend: 10%.
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Baseline annual spend before joining: S0 = $2,200.
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Uplift in annual spend when joining Basic: u = 6%.
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Program operating cost: $5 per member per month.
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Acquisition cost: $15 one‑time.
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No membership fee for Basic.
(a) Compute the Year‑1 incremental profit per Basic‑tier member versus the counterfactual of not joining. Use:
Incremental profit = [m × S1 − (discount rate) × S1] − m × S0 − operating cost − acquisition cost,
where S1 = S0 × (1 + u). State sign (profit or loss).
(b) Premium tier addition:
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Annual fee F =
60;additionalbenefitscostb=
24/year.
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Total discount for Premium d = 15%.
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Premium increases spend by u_p = 12% over the non‑member baseline.
Derive and compute the minimum baseline annual spend S0* at which upgrading a non‑member to Premium breaks even in Year‑1. Use:
Incremental profit_premium = F − b − d × S1_p + m × (S1_p − S0), where S1_p = S0 × (1 + u_p).
Solve for S0* such that Incremental profit_premium = 0.
(c) Sensitivity: By how much (in dollars of S0) does S0* change if m increases by +2pp or if u_p decreases by −3pp? Provide the formula you use and numeric answers.