Estimate annual passenger car tire sales in India from one automaker's market share

Estimate the number of passenger car tires sold in India during financial year 2022–23, which runs from April 2022 through March 2023. You have one data point to anchor on: Maruti Suzuki, which holds 45% of the passenger car market, sold 3,50,000 (that is, 350,000) units from April to December 2022. Walk the interviewer through your method, label every assumption, and finish with a single number, a reasonable range and a sanity check. ```hint Every reason to buy a tire A tire is sold either with a car that has just been built or to someone whose car is already on the road. Work out how far the automaker data point can carry you for each. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Does the 350,000 figure count cars Maruti Suzuki sold or tires fitted to those cars, and is it domestic sales only or does it include exports? - Is the 45% share measured in units over the same April–December period, and may it be assumed to hold for the whole financial year? - Should the estimate include replacement tires bought for cars already on the road, or only tires that come with new cars? - Which vehicles count as passenger cars here: do SUVs, vans and taxis count, and are two-wheelers and trucks excluded? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - An equation that separates tires fitted to new cars from replacement tires for the existing fleet. - Correct use of the data point: the unit of the 350,000 confirmed or stated, one maker's share converted into an industry total, and nine months scaled to the full financial year. - Labeled round-number assumptions for tires per new car, the size of the car fleet and how often tires are replaced, including high-mileage vehicles such as taxis. - Clean arithmetic, a final number with a range, and at least one sanity check. ### Follow-up Questions - January to March is often a strong selling period for cars. How much would a stronger final quarter change your answer? - Which single assumption moves your estimate the most, and what real data would you look for to pin it down? - How would you project tire sales for the following financial year, and which parts of your model would change?