Back-of-envelope estimate of what one self-driving truck costs

Estimate how much a driverless truck costs. Explain how you break the problem down, label each assumption, show your arithmetic, and finish with a figure and how confident you are in it. ```hint Pin down what "cost" means Decide whether you are estimating what a buyer pays, what it costs to build, or what it costs to own and run, then choose whether to build the figure up from parts or start from a comparable vehicle. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Does "driverless" mean no one on board at all, or automation that still needs a safety driver for parts of the route? - What kind of truck: a heavy tractor that pulls trailers on highways, or a smaller delivery truck? - Does "cost" mean the price a fleet pays, the manufacturer's cost to build one, or the total cost to own and operate it? - Which market and currency, and are we pricing an early low-volume vehicle or one at mass production? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A scoped definition of the truck, the level of autonomy and the meaning of cost, settled before any numbers - A top-line equation that splits the cost into parts, with non-hardware costs such as the driving software accounted for - Labeled, round assumptions, each with a one-line rationale - Arithmetic that is correct, unit-consistent and easy to follow - A sanity check from a second angle, a final range, and the inputs that move the answer most ### Follow-up Questions - Which single assumption moves your answer the most, and how would you tighten it? - How would your figure change at ten times the production volume? - Would a fleet buy the truck at your price? How would you check that against what it saves them?