Estimation Case: Yearly Dollar Value of US Food Delivery Orders

How large is food delivery in the United States? Give a yearly dollar estimate and walk through how you got there. ```hint Pick the unit first Decide what you will count (households that order, or restaurants that fulfill orders) and what one order is worth. Choosing the unit up front keeps a group order from being counted once per person. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Does "food delivery" mean prepared restaurant meals only, or should grocery and convenience delivery be included? - Should the figure be what consumers spend (food plus fees and tips), or the revenue that delivery platforms keep? - Should orders that restaurants deliver with their own drivers, such as pizza chains, count alongside orders placed through third-party apps? - Is a current-year snapshot enough, or should the estimate also say something about growth? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A stated market definition and counting unit chosen before any numbers appear - Segmentation of households (or diners) by ordering frequency, with every assumption labeled and rounded - A value per order that separates food, fees and tips, and a clear distinction between consumer spend and platform revenue - Clean arithmetic and a sanity check from an independent angle, such as restaurant supply or share of total restaurant sales - The assumptions that move the result most, and how they could be firmed up with data ### Follow-up Questions - Which single assumption changes your estimate the most, and how would you validate it cheaply? - How would the number change if grocery and convenience delivery were included? - How would you estimate how fast this market will grow over the next few years?