Model Shot Success by Location

You need to build a model that predicts the probability that a shot becomes a goal for every location on a soccer field. Assume you have historical shot-level data with coordinates on the pitch and other pre-shot context. Describe how you would: - define the prediction target, - choose useful features, - select an appropriate model, - handle sparse regions of the field, - validate performance and calibration, - avoid leakage, - and present the final output as a spatial heatmap with uncertainty. Be explicit about trade-offs between interpretability, predictive power, and calibration.